Tesla’s Humanoid Robot Vision: Game Changer or Overhyped?

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Tesla’s stock experienced an increase on Monday, driven by Elon Musk’s ongoing emphasis on the potential value of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk stated on X that Tesla anticipates having genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for internal use next year, aiming for higher production levels for external companies by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual shareholders meeting in April, Musk announced plans to move Optimus robots into limited production by 2025, predicting that over 1,000 robots would be operational within the company by the year’s end. Currently, two robots are reported to be on the factory floor, though Tesla has yet to disclose their specific functions.

Musk also suggested that these humanoid robots could add approximately $20 trillion to Tesla’s market capitalization. However, the robots are not slated for sale until late 2025, with expected prices ranging from $20,000 to $30,000.

The exact definition of “genuinely useful” remains ambiguous, particularly as previous demonstrations have faced scrutiny. In May, critics noted that a video showcasing an Optimus robot folding a shirt appeared to involve a person operating it off-screen. Additionally, Tesla’s initial presentation of the Optimus project in 2021 featured a person dancing in a costume, raising questions about the credibility of their demonstrations.

Analyst Craig Irwin from Roth MKM commented on Yahoo Finance that achieving a sentient humanoid robot by 2025 seems ambitious, particularly given earlier marketing tactics. He pointed out that Tesla may struggle to keep pace with competitors such as Boston Dynamics, which is considered to be ahead in technology.

Tesla faces competition not only from Hyundai’s Boston Dynamics but also from Honda and Apptronik in Japan. Several Chinese companies, including Dongfeng Motor and Nio, are testing humanoid robots developed by UBTech Robotics, while BMW has employed Silicon Valley-based Figure’s humanoid robots in its operations since January.

Following Musk’s remarks, Tesla’s stock rose by more than 3% on Monday. The company’s shares have remained relatively steady year-to-date after a significant rebound over the past two months. Tesla is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, during which Musk is anticipated to provide updates on the delayed robotaxi project.

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