Tesla’s Humanoid Robot Dreams: Will They Deliver?

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Tesla’s stock saw an increase on Monday as CEO Elon Musk continues to emphasize the potential of the company’s humanoid robots.

According to Musk, Tesla plans to have its humanoid robots in low production for internal use by next year, with hopes for greater production for external companies by 2026. He shared these insights on social media platform X, stating, “Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026.”

In a shareholder meeting in April, Musk mentioned that the Optimus robots would enter limited production in 2025, predicting that by the end of that year, over 1,000 units would be operational at Tesla. Currently, two robots are present on the factory floor, though the company has not disclosed their specific functions.

Musk also suggested that these robots could potentially contribute an additional $20 trillion to Tesla’s market capitalization. The robots are not expected to be available for sale until late 2025, and their price is projected to be between $20,000 and $30,000.

However, the definition of “genuinely useful” is vague, as past demonstrations of the robot have not always been convincing. For instance, in May, Tesla faced criticism for releasing a video of an Optimus robot folding a shirt, which appeared to have been operated by a person hidden from view.

Additionally, Tesla’s introduction of the Optimus project in 2021 was marked by a demonstration featuring a person in a robot costume, leading to skepticism about the product’s capabilities. Analyst Craig Irwin from Roth MKM commented on Yahoo Finance, stating, “A sentient humanoid robot by 2025? I mean come on, they tried to launch this product with a dancer inside of a robot suit. It’s gonna be hard for them to catch up to Boston Dynamics. What they’ve shown us is really state of the art for 2014.”

In addition to competing with Hyundai’s Boston Dynamics, Tesla’s competitors include Japan’s Honda and Apptronik. Chinese firms like Dongfeng Motor and Nio are experimenting with humanoid robots from UBTech Robotics in their production processes, while BMW has been utilizing humanoid robots from Silicon Valley’s Figure since January.

Following Musk’s comments, Tesla’s shares rose by over 3% on Monday, while the stock has remained relatively stable year-to-date after experiencing a significant rebound in recent months. The company is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is anticipated to provide updates on the delayed robotaxi rollout.

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