Tesla’s Humanoid Robot Ambitions Rally Stock, But Can They Deliver?

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Tesla’s stock increased on Monday as Elon Musk continues to highlight the potential benefits of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk announced via X that Tesla aims to produce “genuinely useful humanoid robots” for internal purposes by next year, with hopes for broader production available to other companies by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in April, Musk mentioned that the Optimus robot would enter limited production in 2025, with expectations that over 1,000 robots would be operational at Tesla by the end of that year. Currently, two robots are reportedly present on the factory floor, although the specific tasks they perform remain undisclosed.

Musk has speculated that the robots could contribute an additional $20 trillion to Tesla’s market cap, although they are not anticipated to go on the market until late 2025, with projected prices ranging from $20,000 to $30,000.

The definition of “genuinely useful” robots has raised some questions, especially following less-than-stellar product demonstrations. For instance, Tesla faced criticism in May for a video that suggested an Optimus robot was folding a shirt, which was later revealed to have been actuated by a person off-screen.

This isn’t the first instance where Tesla has been accused of using showmanship in its robot presentations, notably introducing the Optimus robot project in 2021 with a dancer in a robot suit.

Analysts have expressed skepticism about Tesla’s ability to compete in this arena. Craig Irwin from Roth MKM remarked that achieving a “sentient humanoid robot by 2025” seems unrealistic, especially when considering the advanced technology demonstrated by competitors like Boston Dynamics.

Apart from Boston Dynamics, Tesla faces competition from Honda, Apptronik, and notable Chinese firms like Dongfeng Motor and Nio, which are using humanoid robots from UBTech Robotics in their production lines. Additionally, BMW has brought Silicon Valley-based Figure’s humanoid robots into their operations since January.

Following Musk’s remarks, Tesla’s stock rose over 3% on Monday. Year-to-date, shares have remained relatively stable after experiencing a significant rebound over the past two months. Tesla will report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is expected to provide updates on the company’s delayed robotaxi project.

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