Tesla is set to announce its Q2 2025 delivery and production figures soon, prompting a closer look at the expectations from Wall Street and the realities on the ground. After experiencing a decline in deliveries over the past year, analysts have struggled to grasp the reasons behind this trend.
In Q1, analysts initially forecasted over 450,000 deliveries, but the figure dropped significantly to around 377,000 by the quarter’s end, leading to a downward adjustment of 73,000 units, representing a loss of approximately $3 billion in potential sales. This challenge appears to be repeating itself in the current quarter, where the original consensus for April deliveries was set at 444,000. Analysts anticipated a recovery based on previous performance; however, that optimism has since faded.
Current projections indicate that Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver around 385,000 vehicles in Q2, which marks a 13% decline year-over-year. This decline is taking place despite the company offering record discounts and incentives, including 0% financing on its Model 3 and Model Y across many markets. Such measures might not be sufficient to solve Tesla’s demand issues, which analysts now believe could result in deliveries falling between 330,000 and 360,000 units, considerably lower than the prevailing estimates.
Data from key markets like Europe and China further support this outlook, as Tesla’s sales have declined slightly despite the release of new models, indicating potential challenges in maintaining demand. While the United States is likely to show some positive impact from the Model Y launch, it may not be enough to achieve growth compared to Q1 2025 figures.
The situation raises concerns about the health of Tesla’s automotive business, prompting analysts to reassess their long-term expectations. Originally forecasting 1.85 million vehicles for the year, the consensus is now down to 1.6 million—a number some believe might still be overstated by around 100,000 units. Predictions for a resurgence in 2026 may also seem overly optimistic, especially considering the expected elimination of the EV tax credit in the U.S.
This increasingly cautious outlook on Tesla’s growth underscores a broader challenge for the automaker as it navigates demand fluctuations and market conditions, particularly under the current leadership. It’s a pivotal moment for the company, with implications that could resonate well into the future as it seeks to reconcile operational capabilities with consumer interest.