In the wake of significant victories for Democrats in recent off-year elections, a special congressional election in Tennessee is emerging as a surprising measure of whether a broader Democratic wave is gathering momentum ahead of next year’s midterm elections. The contest aims to fill the seat left vacant by retired Republican Representative Mark Green and is set for Tuesday, December 2.
Initially flying under the national radar, the race has gained attention as it pits Democrat Aftyn Behn, a 36-year-old progressive state representative, against Republican Matt Van Epps, a combat veteran. Behn’s candidacy has sparked hopes of an unexpected House pickup for Democrats, while top Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, are pouring resources into the race to avert a potential setback.
Tennessee’s 7th congressional district was designed to favor Republicans, created by the state’s GOP-controlled legislature in 2022 through strategic districting that split Democratic-leaning Nashville into three parts. Historically, the district has been a Republican stronghold, as evidenced by Trump’s 22-point margin of victory in 2024 over Kamala Harris. However, recent polling indicates a tighter race, with Emerson College Polling/The Hill showing Van Epps leading Behn by only 2 percentage points, well within the margin of error.
Experts suggest that even a close loss for Behn might signal significant challenges for Republicans in the upcoming 2026 midterms. Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg commented on the ramifications, noting this race reflects the Republican Party’s struggles not just in this election, but as they move forward into the midterms.
The heightened stakes have prompted Republicans to launch a barrage of attacks against Behn, branding her as a “far-left lunatic” and connecting her to controversial statements made in her past. In response, Behn is rallying support among younger, progressive voters through a campaign focused on key issues such as affordability, including plans to eliminate the state grocery tax and reduce healthcare costs.
Recognizing the competitive nature of the race, Trump has held tele-town halls and utilized social media to bolster Van Epps’s campaign, emphasizing his “America First” agenda. However, troublingly for Republicans, the approval rating for Trump has dipped to a new low of 36%, potentially jeopardizing his influence in the district.
Behn’s activist background adds a dynamic element to her campaign – she gained attention for her outspoken advocacy on social issues and her progressive platform resonates with a voter base increasingly engaged in Democratic politics. Recent events suggest that if Democrats are able to maintain momentum, they could capitalize on growing discontent among voters regarding Republican leadership.
In the context of the national political scene, the results of this Tennessee special election could provide critical insight into voter sentiment heading into the midterm elections. With a notable lead for Democrats in national polling and successful off-year campaigns indicating a shift in voter preferences, the stakes have never been higher. Political analysts assert that if trends continue, Democrats may not only gain ground in the House but could also challenge Republican dominance in the Senate, creating a path for broader electoral success in the future.