The Fiji Meteorological Service is currently monitoring Tropical Disturbance TD01F, which is exhibiting slow movement. The deep convection is concentrated over its estimated low-level circulation center, indicating some organization within the disturbance.
Reports from the Fiji Met reveal that TD01F is moving through an environment characterized by low to moderate wind shear, alongside favorable upper-level divergence and sea surface temperatures hovering around 28°C. These conditions are typically conducive to the early development of tropical systems.
However, forecasts from global weather models suggest that over the next 48 hours, TD01F will shift southeast, entering cooler waters and an area subjected to stronger wind shear. This transition is anticipated to lead to the disturbance evolving into a subtropical system.
Given these evolving conditions, the likelihood of TD01F intensifying into a tropical cyclone has decreased significantly. The potential for development is currently rated as low, with expectations of it dropping to very low beyond the initial two-day forecast period.
While the immediate threat from TD01F appears to be declining, ongoing monitoring will continue to ensure accurate updates on potential changes in its trajectory or intensity.