The Fiji Meteorological Service is actively tracking Tropical Disturbance TD01F, which is displaying a gradual movement. The disturbance has shown some organizational characteristics, with deep convection primarily centered around its low-level circulation.
According to the Fiji Met reports, TD01F is currently navigating an environment with low to moderate wind shear, alongside encouraging upper-level divergence and warm sea surface temperatures around 28°C. These environmental factors are typically favorable for the early stages of tropical system development.
However, global weather models forecast that TD01F will move southeast in the next 48 hours, where it will encounter cooler waters and increased wind shear. This upcoming transition is likely to lead the disturbance toward becoming a subtropical system.
As a result of these changing conditions, the likelihood of TD01F intensifying into a tropical cyclone has decreased significantly, with current assessments rating the potential for development as low and expected to drop further to very low beyond the two-day forecast period.
Even though the immediate threat posed by TD01F is diminishing, the situation will continue to be closely monitored to provide accurate updates regarding possible shifts in its path or strength. This ensures that communities remain informed and prepared for any changes.