Target is preparing to announce its first-quarter financial results on Wednesday, and analysts are displaying a cautiously optimistic outlook for the retailer’s stock. While expectations indicate a year-over-year decline in comparable store sales of approximately 1.5%, some experts caution that the drop could be as severe as 4%.
Analysts anticipate that Target’s results may lead to a reduction in the company’s full-year forecasts due to ongoing concerns related to tariffs and a projected slowdown in store performance. Currently, eight out of thirteen analysts have designated the stock as a “hold,” with the remaining five issuing “buy” ratings. Target’s stock has faced a significant slump this year, losing over 25% of its value, but analysts project an average price target of $117.54, indicating a potential upside of nearly 20% based on its Friday closing price.
The expectation for the company’s first-quarter earnings per share stands at $1.64, with revenue expectations slightly declining to $24.41 billion. Last quarter, Target had reported strong fourth-quarter results; however, it also indicated that external factors like tariffs and deteriorating consumer sentiment could influence future performance.
As the earnings report approaches, analysts from major firms like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict that Target may revise its sales and profit forecasts downward. Despite the anticipated short-term challenges, some analysts, such as those from Oppenheimer, express confidence in Target’s long-term prospects and suggest that investors might buy in during any dips in stock price. Conversely, UBS analysts recommend that Target should focus on stabilizing its market share, defining its market position, and demonstrating profitable sustainability to cultivate investor trust.
Overall, while short-term metrics might appear concerning, there is a shared belief among analysts that Target’s long-standing relevance to consumers may support its recovery and growth in the future.