A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for patients with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight management. As a result, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing adequate supplies of these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who made at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about medication shortages and the necessity for patients with diabetes to have continued access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not fully represent the national picture. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite and assist users in losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. Nevertheless, the heightened demand has made it difficult for many patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions in increasing their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.