A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend has raised concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curtail appetite, were originally designed for type 2 diabetes management. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions evaluated the medical records of 45 million Americans who made at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the proportion of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dipped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of users without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and underscores the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study’s data was sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which might not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with studies indicating users can lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these drugs have catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this surge in demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients, prompting both companies to invest heavily in increasing their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that user adoption in the U.S. will reach approximately 31.5 million people, or about 9% of the population, by 2035.