A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of prescribing GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study raises alarms about the potential for shortages in these medications.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, Wegovy, a GLP-1 medication, received FDA approval for weight loss in 2021. Since that time, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. Their findings showed a decline in the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. In contrast, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health. However, it raises concerns about medication shortages and the need to ensure diabetes patients still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though this data may not be fully representative at the national level. Over recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing benefits, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has significantly increased the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them two of the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. Unfortunately, this high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. In response, both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. expected to adopt these medications by 2035, accounting for about 9% of the population.