A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the prescription of GLP-1 drugs is increasing among patients without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study warn that this shift could lead to concerns about potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which imitate a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially intended for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, specifically for weight loss. Since that time, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy increasing demand.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated a significant decline in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it raises concerns regarding medication shortages and ensuring that diabetes patients still have access.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be broadly representative. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite and have been shown to facilitate weight loss of up to 26% of body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the top of the pharmaceutical industry, yet the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies are making substantial investments to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. adopting these treatments by 2035, approximately 9% of the population.