A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. Researchers highlight concerns over potential shortages of these treatments due to this shift.
GLP-1 medications, which regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA greenlit Wegovy for weight loss, prompting a surge in demand. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are now facing challenges in meeting the increasing needs for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. In contrast, the portion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend reflects an increasing recognition of the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. Nevertheless, she emphasized the risks of resulting medication shortages, particularly for diabetes patients.
The analysis utilized data from healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly able to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. However, high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Both companies have committed billions to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S., approximately 9% of the population, adopting these medications by 2035.