The number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The authors of the study have expressed concerns that this trend may lead to potential shortages of these treatments. GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially, these medications were approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, but in 2021, the FDA authorized the use of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Since the approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and ensures that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not completely represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have turned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. Additionally, they anticipate that the adoption of these drugs will extend to approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., representing about 9% of the population, by 2035.