A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are on the decline. The researchers express concerns about potential shortages of these vital medications.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to emulate a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval for Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the rising demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend reflects a significant public health shift, as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for treating obesity. However, it raises vital concerns about ensuring that diabetes patients retain access to these treatments.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%. The soaring sales of these medications have made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, yet the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in getting their prescriptions. Both companies have committed billions of dollars to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs will grow to $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, which constitutes about 9% of the population.