A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are decreasing. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments, according to the authors of the study.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, the FDA expanded approval in 2021 to include Wegovy for weight loss.
Since that time, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in keeping up with the increasing demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that diabetic patients still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have seen their sales soar, making them among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—roughly 9% of the population—will adopt these treatments by 2035.