A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The researchers warn that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite. The FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, broadening the use of these medications.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the rising demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, whereas the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, highlighted that healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, representing a significant public health shift. However, she expressed concern about ensuring continued access to these treatments for diabetes patients.
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with studies showing users can lose up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. This heightened demand has made it difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley predicts that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030 and expects approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—to adopt these medications by 2035.