A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for diabetes patients. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
The study’s authors expressed concern about the implications of this shift, particularly regarding potential shortages of these medications. GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, were originally approved to treat type 2 diabetes but gained FDA approval for weight loss in 2021. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the surging demand for these drugs.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, commented on the findings, noting the increasing recognition among healthcare providers of GLP-1 medications’ benefits for obesity treatment. However, this trend also raises alarms about ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
The report indicates that GLP-1 drugs have grown in popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users able to lose up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in demand has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, though it has created difficulties for some patients in filling prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to increase their production capacity.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expected adoption among approximately 31.5 million people in the United States by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.