A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend where the proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions among those with diabetes are on the decline. This shift raises concerns about possible shortages of these medications, according to the study’s authors.
GLP-1 drugs, which were initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, mimic hormones that help regulate blood sugar and control appetite. In 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, specifically for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been struggling to produce enough of these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to keep up with surging demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, emphasized that this trend reflects an increased recognition of the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant shift in public health. However, she also cautioned about the implications for diabetes patients’ access to these vital treatments.
Utilizing data sourced from healthcare software company TriNetX, the study may not fully represent national trends. Over recent years, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged due to their effectiveness in suppressing appetite and promoting weight loss, with some users losing as much as 26% of their body weight.
The dramatic sales increase has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Nevertheless, the heightened demand has challenged some patients’ ability to fill their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to boost production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expectation that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. will adopt these medications by 2035, constituting around 9% of the population.