A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medication, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. This trend raises alarms regarding potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes. Since then, both major manufacturers, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, have been grappling with the challenge of scaling up production to satisfy growing demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, indicated that healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the value of these medications in treating obesity, signaling a significant shift in public health. However, this shift also brings about concerns over medication availability for diabetic patients.
The analysis utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not reflect the national demographic accurately.
The growing popularity of GLP-1 drugs for their appetite-suppressing effects has led to significant weight loss for users, averaging around 26% of body weight. This surge in demand has catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. Despite their investments of billions into increasing production, some patients still face challenges in obtaining their prescriptions.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could hit $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of about 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035—approximately 9% of the population.