A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decrease in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. The study raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized the use of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are finding it challenging to produce enough GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the soaring demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who consulted a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They observed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which marks a significant public health shift. However, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity for patients with diabetes to maintain access to these treatments.”
The findings are based on data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be representative of the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. As sales of these drugs have surged, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have emerged as the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide, although the high demand has made it difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to enhance production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. adopting these drugs, accounting for approximately 9% of the population, by 2035.