The number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine on Tuesday.
The authors of the study expressed concern that this trend might lead to shortages of these medications. GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, initially receiving approval for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing sufficient GLP-1 drugs, such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the escalating demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, among others, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis revealed that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about possible medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients have continued access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which might not provide a nationally representative picture.
Over the past few years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and have shown the potential for users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030 and that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., about 9% of the population, are expected to adopt these drugs by 2035.