A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. The authors of the study caution that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized the use of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to meet the rising demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated that these findings indicate a significant public health shift, as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, it also raises concerns about ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these essential treatments.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be representative of the entire U.S. population. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite suppression effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has created challenges for patients trying to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to increase their production of these medications.
According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the global market for GLP-1 drugs is projected to reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. — about 9% of the population — by 2035.