Surge in GLP-1 Demand: Are Diabetes Patients at Risk?

The share of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

The study’s authors express concern that this trend may lead to potential shortages of these treatments, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduces appetite. Originally approved for type 2 diabetes management, the GLP-1 medication Wegovy was authorized by the FDA for weight loss in 2021.

As demand rises, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are encountering challenges in producing a sufficient supply of GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.

Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions evaluated the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.

“This data suggests a significant public health shift, as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity for ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.”

The findings stem from data provided by healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national population.

In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.

The surging sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the overwhelming demand has created challenges for patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have committed billions to boost production capacity.

Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, adopting these drugs by 2035.

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