The impending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs has created significant uncertainty for companies as they anticipate potential refunds. This decision could also swiftly affect trade volumes to the U.S. as businesses prepare for Chinese New Year, according to logistics experts.
In recent months, the freight industry in the U.S. has faced a downturn in rates due to reduced container volumes, following a strategy where companies frontloaded goods to mitigate the impact of tariffs. This preemptive move disrupted the typical shipping peak season, specifically impacting the dynamics of container movement heading into 2025.
Should the Supreme Court rule the tariffs enforced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as illegal, it is likely there will be a surge in imports as companies regain confidence in their financial positions and look to rebuild inventory before potential new tariffs are introduced by the Trump administration. Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, noted that erasing these tariffs could indeed lead to an increase in imports, particularly from countries facing higher tariff rates previously.
While the Supreme Court recently issued three decisions, the case regarding tariffs was not addressed. It is noteworthy that the ongoing trade conflict has not hindered China’s trade with other nations, as evidenced by its record $1.2 trillion trade surplus. However, U.S. ocean container volumes have recorded a 14% decrease year-over-year, primarily due to businesses maintaining leaner inventory levels amid higher tariffs. Project44’s January Tariff Report highlighted a staggering 28% drop in imports from China and a 38% decrease in U.S. exports to China during 2025, marking one of the steepest contractions in bilateral trade noted in recent times.
This ruling comes at a pivotal moment for companies managing their supply chains, given that Chinese factories will close for the Lunar New Year for the month of February. To avoid production delays, companies typically place orders for spring and summer goods in late December or early January. SEKO Logistics indicates that preparations for the upcoming Lunar New Year must commence weeks in advance, as workers begin departing for their homes.
The Lunar New Year this year will be observed between February 17 and March 3. Brian Bourke, chief commercial officer for SEKO Logistics, emphasized that a ruling against the tariffs would directly impact order volumes for three primary reasons: the timing of the Lunar New Year, expectations of shifting tariff provisions, and the potential influx of cash that would facilitate new orders.
If ruled illegal, the Court of International Trade has the authority to mandate refunds to U.S. importers, maintaining jurisdiction over these claims for a two-year period. Concurrently, the Trump administration has signaled readiness to pursue alternative tariff strategies should the Supreme Court rule unfavorably.
Small and medium-sized businesses are likely to act swiftly in response to any favorable ruling. Eytan Buchman, CMO of Freightos, noted the urgency smaller firms face in planning compared to larger corporations, especially given the instability created by tariffs. Data from Freightos indicates that if tariffs are declared illegal, a significant increase in orders from smaller businesses can be expected soon.
Historically, there is typically a notable spike in importer activity three to four weeks before the Chinese New Year, suggesting that U.S. businesses have until January 20 to finalize shipping plans. Interestingly, a recent survey by Freightos revealed that not all companies plan to source exclusively from China if the tariffs are lifted; many intend to explore alternative global suppliers or even revert to production within China.
As the judicial outcome approaches, companies across the U.S. remain poised to adapt their sourcing strategies, driven by a quest for stability and efficiency in their supply chains.