C.J. Stroud is set to make his return to the Houston Texans just as the team finds itself in the thick of a playoff race with Week 13 approaching. The third-year quarterback has been sidelined for the past three games due to a concussion sustained in Week 9. However, the Texans (6-5) have rallied in his absence, showcasing resilience since their disheartening 0-3 start and a subsequent 17-10 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Stroud hailed the team’s performance without him as “amazing,” recognizing the growth and development of his teammates. He stated, “You see guys step up and start to take more on the plate and rise to the occasion,” emphasizing the team’s overall talent despite their rocky beginning.
Historically, the Texans face a challenging road to the playoffs; the last team to overcome similar odds was the 2018 Texans. Nevertheless, hope is alive within the organization, with the team showing considerable improvement since Week 3. They boast the fifth-most wins in the league (six), rank 10th in points scored per game (25.6), and have a stellar defensive showing, allowing only 16.4 points per game. They lead the league in defensive EPA (60.47) and have yielded the fewest yards per game (245).
Currently, the Texans trail the Indianapolis Colts (8-3) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4) in the AFC South standings, making their upcoming matchup against the Colts a pivotal one. A victory would not only enhance their chances of making the playoffs—currently pegged at 38% according to ESPN Analytics—but also tighten the divisional race. If the Texans manage to sweep the Colts, their playoff odds could skyrocket to 74%, and their chances of clinching the division may increase to 40%.
Stroud’s injury came during a narrow 18-15 loss to the Denver Broncos, but backup quarterback Davis Mills has shone in his absence, leading the team to a 3-0 record, which included a remarkable comeback against the Jaguars. Mills has recorded six touchdowns and only one interception during this stretch, with wide receiver Nico Collins emerging as a key target, ranking fifth in receiving yards since Week 10.
The offensive line has displayed improvement, allowing Mills to face pressure on merely 31.5% of his dropbacks, a notable reduction compared to earlier in the season. Following a strong performance in a 23-19 win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 12, where Mills was pressured just 16.1% of the time, the Texans appear to have settled on an effective offensive line combination.
With Stroud’s return imminent, there is optimism that he can build on his prior success. Coach DeMeco Ryans noted Stroud’s capability to deliver precise passes, and the offense is poised for a boost if the offensive line can protect him effectively. As the playoffs draw nearer, the Texans are not only aiming to continue their positive momentum but are also looking to solidify their position as serious contenders in the AFC.