A robust upper-level system is set to bring rain and thunderstorms to the region Monday night through Tuesday, with the potential for a few storms to reach strong levels. Following this weather system, a significant cooling trend will occur just in time for Thanksgiving, providing a festive chill to the air.
Throughout Monday, residents can expect a warm and increasingly humid day, bolstered by onshore winds and a surge of moisture moving northward. The skies will begin partly sunny but will gradually transition to thicker cloud cover by the evening, with daytime highs climbing close to 80 degrees. While most of the day will remain dry, a few showers may start to develop later as the atmosphere becomes more conducive to precipitation.
By nighttime, conditions are anticipated to become more unstable. The initial round of showers may move in late this evening, with the highest chance of stronger storms stretching overnight into early Tuesday, particularly in areas north of the metro region and across southwest Mississippi. Overnight lows will remain mild, hovering in the upper 60s with elevated humidity levels.
As for Tuesday, it is expected to bring the week’s most significant chances of rain and thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is anticipated in the morning, primarily affecting northern areas. Here, a brief period of instability, along with a strengthening low-level jet, may result in a few strong to marginally severe storms. Overall, rainfall accumulations are projected to remain modest, generally below 1 inch, and certain areas may experience scant precipitation.
The true cold front will sweep through the area Tuesday night, bringing sharply drier air in its wake. By Thanksgiving, humidity will decrease significantly, with daytime highs returning to a more seasonable mid-60s range, appropriate for late November. Morning temperatures on Thanksgiving will be rather chilly, with many waking up to the 40s and some regions possibly dipping into the upper 30s by Friday morning in the colder pockets. However, a gradual warming trend is expected to commence by the weekend as the onshore flow resumes, bringing back additional rain chances by Sunday.
In tropical news, no development is anticipated in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf over the next week.
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