The San Antonio Spurs entered the season facing uncertainty, particularly concerning their backcourt shooting capabilities. While the trio of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper showcased impressive speed, athleticism, and the ability to drive to the basket, their perimeter shooting was seen as a significant limitation.
Now, as the season progresses, there have been some encouraging developments along with some ongoing concerns worth examining, particularly with the playoffs on the horizon.
De’Aaron Fox has exceeded expectations. Historically regarded as a career 33 percent shooter, Fox has improved his three-point shooting to 35 percent on slightly more attempts this season. This increase signifies that he has bolstered his offensive contributions, especially in lineups where he shares the floor with Castle, as he opts for more three-point shots at a higher success rate when paired with him. He has also exhibited versatility as a pull-up shooter, connecting on 34 percent of such attempts, which enhances his effectiveness as a scoring threat.
Despite Fox’s progress, the same optimism cannot be extended to the younger guards. Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper were not expected to be immediate shooting threats, and their performance confirms those predictions. Castle averages just 32.6 percent on nearly three attempts per game, while Harper follows with a 30 percent shooting average on almost two attempts. These numbers remain less than ideal for any player, especially considering the defensive advantages any successful long-range shot would provide to the opposition. However, both players have demonstrated glimpses of potential, particularly in catch-and-shoot situations, suggesting that while they are not immediately reliable options, there is room for growth.
The pull-up game, however, remains a significant challenge. Castle’s 18 percent success rate on pull-up three-point shots speaks to his struggles, and Harper has also not found his rhythm from that range. The lack of outside shooting could prove detrimental for the Spurs as they make their postseason push, particularly when it comes to fielding effective lineups that include both guards.
Nevertheless, the Spurs may find a silver lining in their mid-range shooting, which could help alleviate some offensive shortcomings. With players like Victor Wembanyama providing spacing even when he’s not taking many threes, Fox’s impressive mid-range shooting—where he averages 53.3 percent from floater range and 44.4 percent from mid-range—adds another layer to their offense. Castle has also shown promise from mid-range, shooting 41.8 percent from the paint outside the restricted area and an impressive 48.1 percent from mid-range on limited attempts. Likewise, Harper has connected on a commendable 43.6 percent from floater range and 45.2 percent from mid-range.
While relying on mid-range shots exclusively is not a strategy for long-term success, having players capable of converting these tougher in-between shots can be crucial, particularly when facing intensified playoff defenses. By continuing to develop their shot-making abilities, especially in the mid-range, and leveraging the presence of Wembanyama’s gravitational pull on defense, the Spurs hope to find a way to navigate their shooting challenges effectively as the postseason approaches. This adaptability could position them to exceed expectations, providing hope for a competitive playoff run.