The Southeast and parts of the Appalachians are facing an increased risk of flooding through the middle of the week, driven by a tropical disturbance near Florida and a drop in the jet stream affecting the central United States. Flood watches are currently in effect for the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, and much of Georgia, with additional watches expected in the upcoming days.
The Gulf Coast will experience the most immediate impact, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected to deliver heavy rain. The National Weather Service has indicated that widespread rainfall could reach between 1 to 3 inches, with isolated areas potentially seeing up to 8 inches of rainfall over the next several days. In southern Georgia, particularly around Blakely, six inches of rain already fell, leading to flooded roads.
As the week progresses, the threat of heavy rain will shift northward, affecting the southern Appalachians and extending into the Carolinas. A stationary front along the Gulf Coast has been key in producing significant rain, leveraging high levels of atmospheric moisture, which is currently about 150 percent of normal. This scenario creates a high likelihood of torrential rainfall with any storms that develop.
The National Weather Service warns that slow-moving thunderstorms could lead to substantial rainfall in a short period, exacerbating the flood risk. Numerous advisories and warnings have already been issued.
Looking ahead to Tuesday and into midweek, the heavy rain threat will persist in the same areas, with forecasts indicating potential flooding as the moisture concentration intensifies in the southern Appalachians and into the Carolinas. The situation remains fluid, with uncertainties related to the tropical disturbance contributing to moisture levels, along with heightened activity as we reach the peak of the hurricane season.
Additionally, areas in central South Carolina and parts of North Carolina and Virginia are especially susceptible to flooding, having already received 150 to 200 percent of their typical rainfall over the last two months. Consequently, some locations that experienced flooding from a previous storm may be at risk again.
While forecasts vary, with certain models suggesting potential double-digit rainfall totals in some locations, the American GFS model points to the heaviest rain staying offshore. Nevertheless, the overall situation necessitates close attention, particularly in areas that are already waterlogged.
This weather pattern serves to highlight the importance of preparedness in the face of potential flooding, particularly as tropical influences are on the rise during this season. Local authorities and residents should remain vigilant and heed advisories issued by weather services.