A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. Researchers have raised concerns about potential shortages of these treatments due to this shift.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 medication, for weight loss in 2021. Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the rising demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and affiliated institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated a drop in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend reflects a growing acknowledgment among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, signaling a major public health change. However, she emphasized the need to prioritize access for diabetes patients amid increasing demands.
The research utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends. Over recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
As demand for these drugs surges, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become leading pharmaceutical companies, but they have struggled to fulfill prescriptions for some patients. To address this issue, both companies have allocated significant investments to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley projects the global market for GLP-1 drugs could soar to $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, representing around 9% of the population.