A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant shift in the prescribing patterns of GLP-1 medications. While the number of new prescriptions for individuals with diabetes is declining, the proportion of prescriptions for those without diabetes is increasing. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023, finding that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70%. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to about 25%.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized the use of Wegovy for weight loss, prompting a rise in non-diabetic prescriptions. This increasing demand has led to supply challenges for manufacturers such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, both of which are producing popular drugs like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-author of the study, noted that the growing recognition of these drugs for obesity treatment marks a significant public health development. However, this trend raises concerns about potential medication shortages for diabetic patients who need access to these treatments. With the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 medications facilitating up to 26% weight loss, they have surged in popularity and generated substantial sales, establishing Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as top pharmaceutical companies globally.
Investment analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030 and anticipate that around 31.5 million people in the U.S. will use these medications by 2035, which equates to approximately 9% of the population.