Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin’s focus shifted, reducing its influence in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In 2023, Azerbaijan took decisive steps to assert control over the entire region, prompting the displacement of approximately 100,000 ethnic Armenians. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping troops in April 2022 coincided with Azerbaijan’s efforts to reconstruct the area, leading to concerns about the erasure of Armenian cultural heritage.
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan soured further after a tragic incident in December, when Russian air defenses struck an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane en route to Grozny, resulting in the deaths of 38 people. Meanwhile, Armenia has expressed intense dissatisfaction with Russia, feeling abandoned in its conflict with Azerbaijan. This has resulted in Armenian officials threatening to exit the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which is led by Moscow. In March, Armenia’s Parliament took a significant step toward European integration by passing legislation to further its aspirations to join the European Union.
Efforts to establish a permanent peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been met with challenges, particularly in determining the border between the two nations. Azerbaijan’s military strength and increased European demand for its oil and gas have emboldened President Ilham Aliyev, allowing him to set stringent conditions, including demands to amend the Armenian constitution to remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh and to establish a transportation link through Armenia to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhichevan. However, Armenia remains cautious about committing to such plans, primarily due to concerns over control of the transportation route.
As both nations navigate this complex and evolving landscape, the hope for a peaceful resolution rests on continued dialogue and international support, marking a critical juncture for both Armenia and Azerbaijan as they seek to redefine their futures.