A Flash Flood Watch has been put in place for San Antonio and surrounding areas as heavy storms are expected to roll in tonight, potentially bringing intense downpours. Rainfall amounts are predicted to range between 2 to 4 inches, with isolated areas possibly receiving 6 inches or more.
The mid-level low in the atmosphere located northwest of the region is anticipated to move eastward, causing a strong updraft across the I-35 corridor, which stretches from San Antonio to Dallas. Additionally, a significant influx of moisture from the tropics is traveling northward into this corridor, further heightening the storm’s severity.
Reports indicate that storms have already started in areas from Kerr to Kimble County, leading to a Flash Flood Warning due to slow-moving systems that are unloading heavy rain in the same locale.
According to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, the region has been designated in the “Excessive Rainfall Outlook,” with our area experiencing a moderate risk of flooding. Urban development along the I-35 corridor exacerbates these flooding concerns. Furthermore, the Storm Prediction Center has categorized us under a “marginal to slight” severe storm outlook, which includes risks for strong winds, hail, and frequent lightning.
Looking ahead, future radar imagery suggests that rainfall totals may reach between 1 and over 4 inches, with counties further to the west likely experiencing considerably less rain compared to previous storm systems. Although NOAA’s forecast aligns with these expectations, there remains an intriguing signal from our in-house computer model indicating a higher potential for flash flooding due to storm training. While this scenario is still considered an outlier, it underscores the importance of monitoring current trends.
It’s essential to stay alert and prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions tonight, as the potential for significant rainfall may lead to challenging situations on the roads and in low-lying areas.