Tropics Quiet for Now, but Activity Could Rise in September
A tropical wave and a cluster of thunderstorms are set to move west from the coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic as soon as this coming weekend. These waves are the seeds that can develop into tropical storms later in hurricane season, though it remains too soon to tell how things will unfold.
What Could Happen Next
– The developing system is expected to travel west-northwest across the eastern Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
– The National Hurricane Center has indicated the wave could undergo slow development in the coming days, but wind shear and pockets of dry air in the eastern Atlantic may hamper organization.
– Even if some development occurs, it is likely several days away and its path remains uncertain. By the weekend of September 6-7, the system could still be hundreds of miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and it may not threaten the Caribbean or the United States at all. There’s also a possibility it could recurve away into the open Atlantic, similar to what Tropical Storm Fernand did recently.
– The next Atlantic tropical storm will be named Gabrielle if development occurs.
When the Atlantic Could Turn More Active
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects the Atlantic basin to become more favorable for tropical development starting in mid-September, with a period of more activity lasting for a few weeks. That aligns with the traditional mid-September peak of the hurricane season, when lower wind shear and moister, more unstable air can help storms take shape.
Season activity has been fairly typical so far: about six named storms and one hurricane, with Erin—the season’s only hurricane so far—failing to make landfall but bringing heavy rain, coastal flooding, and rip currents to parts of the Leeward Islands and the East Coast. Still, most of the season’s activity tends to come after September 1, with roughly 70% of annual activity occurring from September onward.
What This Means for You
– It’s currently quiet, but preparation is wise. Review your hurricane plan, stock up on essentials, and ensure you have an emergency kit, a communication plan, and up-to-date insurance details.
– Stay informed about forecasts in the coming weeks, especially as the peak of hurricane season approaches mid-September.
– If you live in hurricane-prone areas, monitor advisories from official sources and be ready to adjust plans as needed.
Overall, while the immediate days ahead look calm, meteorologists expect the Atlantic to wake up as we move into September, reinforcing the importance of preparedness now rather than scrambling later.