Tyler Shough, selected as the 40th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft and the third quarterback chosen after Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart, is set to make his first professional start as the quarterback for the New Orleans Saints this Sunday.
Rookie quarterbacks taken in early rounds frequently see the field during their inaugural seasons, and in Shough’s case, the decision to install him as a starter comes after Spencer Rattler, last year’s fifth-round pick, struggled in his recent outings. Although Rattler displayed promise in his eight-game tenure, his performance—most notably in the last two games—failed to convince head coach Kellen Moore to stick with him in the Week 8 game against the Buccaneers, resulting in Shough getting the nod shortly into the second half. The Saints fell to the Buccaneers, 23-3, with both quarterbacks producing nearly identical statistics: Rattler completed 15 of 21 passes for 136 yards with one interception, while Shough finished 17 of 30 for 128 yards and an interception.
Coach Moore must feel the pressure as a first-year head coach to make a strategic decision when the starting quarterback doesn’t stand out, prompting the switch to Shough. The Saints’ upcoming matchup against the Los Angeles Rams—a team boasting one of the league’s top defenses—will be critical in assessing Shough’s capabilities as a starting quarterback.
As of now, the Saints find themselves alongside the Jets and Titans at a record of 1-7. If the season’s trajectory continues, there is a strong possibility that New Orleans could end up with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, thereby opening discussions on potential quarterback picks like Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Alabama’s Ty Simpson, or Oregon’s Dante Moore.
The question now arises: what does Shough need to demonstrate in the remaining nine games of the season to secure his position as the starting quarterback and deter the organization from seeking another franchise quarterback in the draft? Former Titans general manager Ran Carthon shared insights on this topic, emphasizing that Shough must show efficiency in executing Kellen Moore’s system, improve offensive production, and score points consistently.
History informs us that teams that successfully trade down during drafts can accelerate their rebuild by acquiring multiple top picks, as demonstrated by the Bears and Titans in previous drafts. In contrast, choosing to commit to a quarterback that isn’t proving to be the solution could hinder overall progress.
With past examples like the Panthers’ decision to select Cam Newton the year following their investment in Jimmy Clausen, it’s clear how critical it is for teams not to fall into a sunk-cost fallacy. The Panthers made the right choice in 2011, opting for a franchise quarterback who eventually led them to a successful run.
For the Saints, the current scenario presents both challenges and opportunities. By looking closely at Shough’s performance on the field, the organization can make informed decisions as they survey the draft landscape ahead. If Shough performs well, he may just solidify his place for the future; however, if the results are mediocre, they might have to reconsider their options as draft day approaches.
While sitting under a disappointing 1-7 record may cast a dark shadow right now, it is essential for the Saints to treat this transition period as a chance to refine their roster and strategic vision for the future. With the right evaluations and choices, this could lay the groundwork for a hopeful resurgence for the franchise.