The Yankees head south to Tampa for a de facto home game at George Steinbrenner Field, riding momentum after taking two straight from the St. Louis Cardinals. Manager Aaron Boone’s club is aiming to keep its winning streak alive as they open a series against the Rays, with a betting edge leaning toward New York behind Carlos Rodón.
The Rays counter with right-hander Shane Baz, who sits at 8-9 with a 4.93 ERA. The Yankees are listed as favorites, around -145 for Tuesday’s game, with the over/under set near eight runs.
Rodón has been solid this season, compiling a 3.25 ERA and a 12-7 record. On the Rays’ side, Tampa Bay comes into the matchup ranked 14th in the majors in runs per game (4.45). A notable weakness for the Rays this season is hitting left-handed pitching; they own a .228 batting average against southpaws, and their run production over the past 30 games sits around 3.56 per game (27th in the league).
Tampa’s lineup features left-handed hitters at the top, including Chandler Simpson and Brandon Lowe, which could shape how Baz attacks this Yankees lineup.
Betting notes suggest the better angle may not be the moneyline. Instead, consider the Yankees establishing an early lead against Baz. Baz has walked multiple batters in seven straight starts and has not completed five innings in four of those starts.
The Play: Yankees first five innings moneyline at +100.
Why this angle makes sense: Rodón has shown reliability, and the Yankees’ ability to jump on Baz early could allow New York to control the pace of the game. Baz’s tendency to issue walks early could give the Yankees a lift in the early innings and help them seize a lead that Rodón can protect.
Additional context and line-tracking notes: With Rodón on the mound, the Yankees will rely on his ability to navigate through a Rays lineup that has some pop but has struggled historically against left-handed pitching. For bettors, the first five innings angle offers a way to capture a potential early advantage while avoiding some late-inning volatility that can accompany bullpen usage on a road trip.
Summary: The Yankees aim to capitalize on Rodón’s form and a Rays lineup that struggles against lefties, with an early lead in mind as Baz faces a team known for taking advantage of walks and early scoring opportunities. If New York can get on Baz and maintain pressure in the early frames, they could carve out a favorable path to a win in the series opener.
Optional note for readers: This preview focuses on the core matchup and betting angle to watch, with the expectation that Rodón’s control and the Yankees’ early offense will be critical factors in this Tuesday night contest.