Rivian, the electric vehicle manufacturer, is set to release its third-quarter results on November 4. However, ahead of this announcement, Vijay Rakesh, a leading analyst from Mizuho Securities, has downgraded the stock rating from Neutral to Underperform and reduced the price target from $14 to $10 per share. This new price target suggests a potential decline of approximately 23% from the current stock level. Rakesh cited concerns about declining demand for electric vehicles and the impending expiration of U.S. government incentives, both of which could significantly impact Rivian’s growth in the upcoming year.
Rakesh is well-regarded in the financial community, currently ranking 67 out of more than 10,000 analysts on TipRanks, with a 64% success rate and an average return of 24.8% per rating over the last year. He expressed that Rivian is entering a challenging period, noting that overall electric vehicle growth in North America is predicted to remain flat in 2026. This climate makes Rivian’s ambitious plan to increase vehicle deliveries by approximately 69% year-over-year seem unrealistic.
Additionally, Rakesh indicated that the cessation of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives would elevate the cost of electric vehicles for consumers. He pointed to recent significant write-downs by other automakers like General Motors as a signal of weakening demand across the electric vehicle sector.
In light of the revised EV market outlook, Rakesh has adjusted Rivian’s delivery forecasts downward. He now anticipates the company will deliver around 60,000 vehicles in 2026, a decrease from his earlier estimate of 68,000 and below the broader market forecast of approximately 72,000. He emphasized that Rivian’s high average vehicle price, exceeding $70,000, could further hinder short-term sales growth, especially before the introduction of its R2 model, slated for early 2026.
When it comes to the overall sentiment on Rivian stock, Wall Street analysts currently hold a consensus rating of “Hold.” This encompasses seven Buy ratings, ten Hold ratings, and five Sell ratings assigned in the last three months. The average price target set by analysts stands at $13.65 per share, indicating a modest potential upside of around 4.76%.
Rivian’s future will largely depend on its ability to navigate these market challenges and meet its ambitious production goals while adapting to evolving consumer demand and regulatory landscapes in the electric vehicle sector.