A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. The study raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, following the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, interest in these medications has surged. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in keeping up with the increased demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes has risen from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this shift suggests healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, Yeo also expressed concern over ensuring access for diabetes patients amid rising demand.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent the entire national population. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have significantly boosted the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has led to challenges for patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to increase production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million users in the U.S., equating to about 9% of the population, by 2035.