A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are decreasing. This trend could lead to potential shortages of these medications, according to the study’s authors.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA granted approval for Wegovy, a GLP-1 drug, to be used for weight loss.
Since the approval, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity for patients with diabetes to maintain access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not entirely represent the national demographic. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite, with studies showing that users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. Nevertheless, the high demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with the number of users in the U.S. expected to rise to about 31.5 million, approximately 9% of the population, by 2035.