A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant trend: the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, gained FDA approval for weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their findings show that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study’s analysis relied on data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect the national population accurately.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity in recent years for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has created challenges for patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to scale up their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. Additionally, they expect that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will be using these medications.