A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs, showing an increase in prescriptions for individuals without diabetes while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study raises alarms over the potential shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and decrease appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, the FDA expanded their use in 2021, allowing Wegovy to be prescribed for weight loss. This shift has led to increased demand for GLP-1 drugs like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, causing production challenges for manufacturers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the proportion of users without diabetes climbed from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, expressed concerns about the implications of this data, noting the significant public health shift as more healthcare providers recognize the drugs’ benefits for obesity, while also emphasizing the necessity for diabetes patients to maintain access to these medications.
The analysis was based on data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to assist users in losing up to 26% of their body weight.
As sales of these drugs soar, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with the anticipated adoption rate reaching approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.