A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in GLP-1 drug prescriptions for individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and decrease appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA extended the approval for Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes.
Since the approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in keeping up with the growing demand for GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this trend also raises concerns about medication shortages and the necessity to ensure access for diabetes patients.”
The data utilized in the study was sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users lose as much as 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, yet high demand has made it difficult for some patients to receive their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to increase production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, predicting that about 31.5 million people in the United States, or approximately 9% of the population, will be adopting these treatments by 2035.