A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights an increasing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions for individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns regarding potential medication shortages.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite, were initially developed for treating type 2 diabetes. However, following FDA approval in 2021, Wegovy was additionally authorized for weight management.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing difficulties in manufacturing enough GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the surging demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million patients between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes plummeted from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while those without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the medications’ benefits for obesity treatment, emphasizing the need to ensure that diabetes patients retain access to these critical drugs.
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software firm, which may not represent the national demographics accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing properties, with users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%. The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry. However, this high demand has led to challenges in fulfilling prescriptions for some patients, prompting both companies to invest heavily in increasing production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will escalate to $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million users in the U.S., representing around 9% of the population, by 2035.