A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications, according to the study authors.
GLP-1 drugs imitate a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and reduces appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 treatments like Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, those without diabetes who began using GLP-1 drugs increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the national demographic comprehensively. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the overwhelming demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could hit $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, by 2035.