A recent study revealed that the number of people without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while new prescriptions for diabetics are declining. This trend has raised alarms about possible shortages in these vital treatments, according to findings published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially designed to treat type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment for weight loss, in 2021. Since this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in keeping up with the soaring demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the proportion of new users of GLP-1 drugs for type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. However, Yeo added that there are growing concerns regarding potential drug shortages and the necessity to ensure diabetes patients maintain access to these treatments.
The research utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged, largely due to their effectiveness in suppressing appetite and helping users lose as much as 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has also led to challenges for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance production capacity for these medications.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. The investment bank also projects that the number of individuals using these drugs in the U.S. could reach approximately 31.5 million by 2035, which would represent about 9% of the population.