A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes who are prescribed GLP-1 medications is rising, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients have decreased. This shift raises concerns about potential supply shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which were initially approved for managing type 2 diabetes, function by imitating a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and aids in appetite reduction. In 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, specifically for weight loss.
Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in scaling up their production of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and ensuring that diabetes patients retain access to these treatments.”
The study’s data was sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the national population.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity in recent years due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users reporting a weight loss of up to 26%. The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, but high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily in increasing their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., equivalent to about 9% of the population, by 2035.