A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers warn this shift could lead to potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone responsible for regulating blood sugar levels and curbing appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Following this, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing adequate supplies of GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet increasing demand.
The study was undertaken by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations, analyzing medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes has increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this data reflects a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health transition. However, Yeo expressed concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the necessity of ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
The study’s data, derived from the healthcare software company TriNetX, may not be representative of the national statistics. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing properties, demonstrating the potential for users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have experienced skyrocketing sales of these drugs, establishing themselves as leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients, prompting substantial investments by both companies to boost production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, by 2035.