A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a concerning trend: the proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% in the same timeframe. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
GLP-1 drugs, originally approved for managing type 2 diabetes, have gained popularity for their effectiveness in weight loss. This shift can be attributed to the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. The rise in prescriptions for these medications, particularly Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, has underscored the increasing demand faced by manufacturers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that healthcare providers are now recognizing the benefits of GLP-1 drugs for obesity treatment, which signifies a significant public health shift. However, this leads to potential concerns about medication shortages and the accessibility of these treatments for diabetes patients.
As GLP-1 drugs continue to gain traction for their appetite-suppressing properties, their sales have skyrocketed, elevating Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. The high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest heavily in production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of about 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for roughly 9% of the population.