A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a concerning trend: the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from almost 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes rose significantly from 10% to 25%.
GLP-1 medications, initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, work by mimicking a hormone that controls blood sugar and curbs appetite. The FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021 contributed to the rising demand for these drugs. This surge in demand has led both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, key manufacturers of GLP-1 medications like Ozempic and Mounjaro, to struggle with production capacity.
Yee Hui Yeo, the co-first author of the study, highlighted the implications of these findings, stating that a growing recognition of the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity is a significant shift in public health. However, the trend raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetic patients still have access to these essential treatments.
The study, while informative, is based on data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
The surging popularity of GLP-1 drugs has been linked to their appetite suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This demand has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the top ranks of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, although it has also led to prescription fulfillment challenges. Both companies have committed billions to increase their production capabilities.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with projected adoption among approximately 31.5 million Americans, or about 9% of the population, by 2035.