A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. This trend has raised alarms about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, known for mimicking a hormone that manages blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, received FDA approval for weight loss. Since then, pharmaceutical companies such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the surging demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, among others, examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They noted a decrease in the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, this also raises concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients maintain access to these treatments.”
The study relied on information from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight loss effects, helping users shed up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have turned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. Nevertheless, the high demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested heavily to increase production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people, or about 9% of the U.S. population, expected to adopt these medications by 2035.